\u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content\"\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_ERROR_2--\u003e\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e日本将于21日召集临时国会，其间将举行首相指名选举，选出石破茂的继任者。由于公明党退出执政联盟，自民党新总裁高市早苗能否当选首相仍是疑问。当前日本各政党如何博弈？\u003c!--NO_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"cms-cke-widget-title-normal-3 cms-cke-widget-title-tpl cms-cke-widget-title-wrapper cms-cke-widget-tpl\" data-key=\"title-normal-3\" data-reactroot=\"\" style=\"align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold; justify-content: flex-start; margin-bottom: 26px; margin-top: 28px; width: 100%\"\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"cms-cke-widget-title-container\" style=\"display: inline-block; position: relative; z-index: 9\"\u003e\n\u003csection class=\"icon\" style=\"background-image: url(https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OX7Z_nbbTaKtViCWODDbOU1wckRuvY_TA8hQbw9qZcZmIAA/0); background-position: center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; display: inline-block; height: 48px; left: 0px; margin-right: 4px; position: absolute; top: -5px; width: 48px\" data-no-dark=\"true\"\u003e \u003c/section\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"cms-cke-widget-title-wrap title-normal-3-text\" style=\"color: #0d141e; display: inline-block; line-height: 26px; min-width: 4px; padding: 1px 12px 1px 21px; position: relative; text-align: left; top: 9px; word-break: break-all\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e维新会与自民党靠近 多个在野党调整策略\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e本月15日，立宪民主党、国民民主党、日本维新会三个在野党曾举行党首会谈。三党在国会议席数相对较多，如果能组建联盟，推选统一竞选者，将有望阻止高市早苗当选首相。但是，15日的会谈中，\u003cstrong data-source=\"cke\"\u003e三党未能在政策方面达成一致\u003c/strong\u003e。\u003c!--NO_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003c!--IMG_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e随着日本维新会退出在野党阵营共选首相的协商，并与自民党迅速靠近，最大在野党立宪民主党17日表示，将在首相指名选举中投票给本党党首野田佳彦。另据日本共同社17日报道，公明党高层当日表示，该党开始调整策略，在首相指名选举中，不会投票给在野党党首。\u003c!--NO_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"cms-cke-widget-title-normal-3 cms-cke-widget-title-tpl cms-cke-widget-title-wrapper cms-cke-widget-tpl\" data-key=\"title-normal-3\" data-reactroot=\"\" style=\"align-items: center; box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; font-size: 19px; font-weight: bold; justify-content: flex-start; margin-bottom: 26px; margin-top: 28px; width: 100%\"\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"cms-cke-widget-title-container\" style=\"display: inline-block; position: relative; z-index: 9\"\u003e\n\u003csection class=\"icon\" style=\"background-image: url(https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OX7Z_nbbTaKtViCWODDbOU1wckRuvY_TA8hQbw9qZcZmIAA/0); background-position: center; background-repeat: no-repeat; background-size: cover; display: inline-block; height: 48px; left: 0px; margin-right: 4px; position: absolute; top: -5px; width: 48px\" data-no-dark=\"true\"\u003e \u003c/section\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"cms-cke-widget-title-wrap title-normal-3-text\" style=\"color: #0d141e; display: inline-block; line-height: 26px; min-width: 4px; padding: 1px 12px 1px 21px; position: relative; text-align: left; top: 9px; word-break: break-all\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e首相指名选举会有哪些可能的结果？\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e分析认为，从目前的形势来看，日本首相指名选举有三种可能的结果。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv data-captcha=\"△高市早苗（资料图）\" data-height=\"374\" data-src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OdJVtxhXq7rzGFJxyaBypSQEQyN3YstDtZ3aJq48_PaYQAA/641\" data-type=\"3\" data-uploaded=\"1\" data-widget=\"image\" data-width=\"641\"\u003e\u003c!--IMG_1--\u003e\u003cp type=\"om-image-desc\"\u003e△高市早苗（资料图）\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e第一种，\u003cstrong data-source=\"cke\"\u003e自民党与维新会组建执政联盟，高市早苗当选日本首相\u003c/strong\u003e。这种情况下，两党在国会众参两院的议席总数均未过半数，高市将面临“少数执政”的困境，政策推行难度可能不小。\u003c!--NO_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\n\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e第二种，\u003cstrong data-source=\"cke\"\u003e自民党单独执政，高市早苗当选日本首相\u003c/strong\u003e。自民党目前仍然是国会第一大党，如果在野党无法推选统一竞选者，即便自民党和维新会最终谈崩，高市也可凭借自民党在国会拥有最多席位的优势获胜。只是，缺乏执政盟友的支持会加大其执政难度。 \u003c!--NO_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\n\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e第三种，\u003cstrong data-source=\"cke\"\u003e在野党成功组建联盟并从中产生首相\u003c/strong\u003e，目前看来，这一可能性较小。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"color-00b0f0\" data-source=\"cke\"\u003e\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e各有盘算 日本自民党与维新会结盟谈判最新进展→\u0026gt;\u0026gt;\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp data-source=\"cke\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"color-a4acb6\" data-source=\"cke\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"font_size-16px\" data-source=\"cke\"\u003e©2025中央广播电视总台版权所有。未经许可，请勿转载使用。\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\u003cstyle\u003e.rich_media_content{--news-tabel-th-night-color: #444444;--news-font-day-color: #333;--news-font-night-color: #d9d9d9;--news-bottom-distance: 22px}.rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}.rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-day-color);font-size:18px}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-night-color)}}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-night-color)}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content{font-size:18px}.rich_media_content p[data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]{margin-bottom:11px}.rich_media_content\u003ediv:not(.qnt-video),.rich_media_content\u003esection{margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance)}.rich_media_content hr{margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance)}.rich_media_content .link_list{margin:0;margin-top:20px;min-height:0!important}.rich_media_content blockquote{background:#f9f9f9;border-left:6px solid #ccc;margin:1.5em 10px;padding:.5em 10px}.rich_media_content blockquote p{margin-bottom:0!important}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content blockquote{background:#323232}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content blockquote{background:#323232}}.rich_media_content ol[data-ex-list]{--ol-start: 1;--ol-list-style-type: decimal;list-style-type:none;counter-reset:olCounter calc(var(--ol-start,1) - 1);position:relative}.rich_media_content ol[data-ex-list]\u003eli\u003e:first-child::before{content:counter(olCounter,var(--ol-list-style-type)) '. 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